Forecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India, A Report by NITI Aayog
Click here to read the complete report by NITI Aayog: ForecastingPenetration-ofElectric2W_28-06
Driven by concerns over climate change, environmental pollution, and energy security, the road transport sector is transforming with electric mobility promising to replace conventional fossil fuel-based transport in near future. Thus, while determining the policy imperatives for the desired future, planning for infrastructure, and ensuring an appropriate ecosystem, a prior estimate of the possible level of penetration of electric two-wheelers is extremely useful. It is very important to have a bottom-up analysis of how various policies and economic, market, and technological factors may influence consumer acceptance of electric vehicles. Keeping these issues in mind, NITI Aayog initiated the bottom-up forecasting for electric two-wheelers in collaboration with TIFAC. Several models were deliberated, studied, and discussed before finalizing an Agent-Based tool for analyzing the market penetration of electric vehicles on annual basis.
Since in the Indian context two-wheelers have a very prominent role to play, this tool has been used for scenario analysis of electric two-wheelers penetration, resulting in the present report.
This work could be conceptualized because the vision and inspiration of Mr. Amitabh Kant, CEO of NITI Aayog, and Mr. Sudhendu Sinha provided valuable guidance to the authors regarding the formulation of the Agent-Based Model. Advice and comments received
from other senior officials of NITI Aayog were instrumental in steering this activity in the right direction.
Valuable inputs were received from the automobile manufacturers, component manufacturers, and Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), either in response to a specific query or through discussions/brainstorming in various forums.
We hope that this report will provide all relevant stakeholders with important insights and the Agent-Based model, which can be easily customized for other categories of vehicles as well, will serve as a useful tool for the policymakers, industry, research community and
other stakeholders.
Click here to read the complete report by NITI Aayog: ForecastingPenetration-ofElectric2W_28-06
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Reference: NITI Aayog
