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EV Leapfrog
Home » Blog » The EV Leapfrog: How Emerging Markets Are Powering a Global EV Race
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The EV Leapfrog: How Emerging Markets Are Powering a Global EV Race

Sunita
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Sunita
Last updated: 18 December 2025
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Emerging Markets Turbocharge Global EV Sales in 2025 as New Regions Rapidly Switch to Electric Cars, Joining Europe and China in High EV Adoption

Contents
  • The EV Race Goes Truly Global
  • New Milestones Signal a Structural Shift
  • ASEAN Emerges as a Global EV Powerhouse
  • Emerging Markets Overtake Advanced Economies
  • Europe’s Mixed Picture: Growth Beyond the Core
  • Policy as the Catalyst for Leapfrogging
  • Air Quality, Energy Security, and Economic Benefits
  • Chinese EV Exports Find New Destinations
  • EVs and the Decline of Fossil Fuel Dependence
  • Conclusion: A New Center of Gravity for EVs
    • Comment by the Author

The global electric vehicle (EV) transition has entered a decisive new phase in 2025, reshaping the future of mobility far beyond traditional automotive strongholds. What was once a story dominated by Europe, China, and a handful of advanced economies has now become a truly global race—one increasingly led by emerging markets across Asia, Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East. New data from 2025 shows that these regions are not merely catching up but, in many cases, leapfrogging developed economies in EV adoption, policy ambition, and market growth.


The EV Race Goes Truly Global

In 2025, over a quarter of all new cars sold worldwide are electric, a dramatic rise from less than 3% in 2019. This milestone reflects not just technological maturity or falling battery costs, but a profound shift in global demand patterns. A total of 39 countries have now crossed the 10% EV sales share mark, compared to just four countries in 2019—all of them in Europe.

What makes this transition remarkable is its geography. One-third of these 39 countries are outside Europe, underscoring how emerging markets are now driving the global EV boom. From Southeast Asia to Latin America and parts of Africa, electrification is accelerating at a pace that has surprised even industry veterans.

Most notably, China has crossed the 50% EV sales share threshold for the first time in 2025, cementing its dominance as the world’s largest EV market. Between January and October 2025 alone, EVs accounted for more than a quarter of global new car sales, highlighting the speed at which electric mobility is becoming mainstream.


New Milestones Signal a Structural Shift

Electric vehicle sales have continued strong year-on-year growth throughout 2025, but the character of that growth has changed. While several legacy auto markets have slowed or rolled back EV incentives, emerging economies are stepping in to fill the momentum gap.

In 2019, Europe was the sole driver of high EV penetration. By 2025, 12 countries outside Europe have crossed the 10% EV sales share milestone, signaling a structural shift in the global automotive landscape. This trend suggests that the future of electric mobility will not be defined by a single region but by a diverse group of markets with varying income levels, energy systems, and industrial strategies.

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ASEAN Emerges as a Global EV Powerhouse

One of the most striking developments in 2025 is the rise of Southeast Asia as a global leader in EV adoption.

  • Viet Nam has nearly doubled its EV sales share since 2024, reaching close to 40% in 2025, overtaking both the UK and the European Union in EV penetration.
  • Thailand has crossed the 20% EV sales share mark for the first time, a staggering jump from just 1% in 2019.
  • Singapore, Thailand, and Viet Nam now all exceed the EU average in battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales share.

Viet Nam’s transformation is particularly notable. As recently as 2021, EVs accounted for less than 0.05% of new car sales in the country. Today, nearly two out of every five new cars sold are electric, driven largely by domestic manufacturer VinFast. The company’s locally produced BEVs dominate the market, with the VF 3 emerging as the best-selling car in the country in 2025.

Singapore remains a regional benchmark, with EV sales exceeding 40% of new car purchases so far this year. Together, these countries demonstrate how targeted policies, local manufacturing, and charging infrastructure can rapidly reshape consumer behavior.


Emerging Markets Overtake Advanced Economies

Across multiple regions, emerging markets are now surpassing traditional automotive giants in EV adoption.

  • India, Mexico, and Brazil now have higher EV sales shares than Japan, where EV penetration has stagnated around 3% since 2022.
  • Indonesia has reached a 15% EV sales share in 2025, overtaking the United States for the first time.
  • In Latin America, Uruguay has emerged as a frontrunner with EVs making up 27% of new car sales, roughly on par with the EU average.
  • Costa Rica has reached a 17% EV sales share, while Mexico, Colombia, and Brazil continue steady growth, with Brazil and Colombia approaching the 10% mark.

In contrast, EV adoption in the US and Japan has plateaued, reflecting policy uncertainty, slower infrastructure rollout, and shifting political priorities. This divergence highlights how policy consistency and long-term vision are critical to sustaining EV momentum.


Europe’s Mixed Picture: Growth Beyond the Core

Europe remains a major EV market, but growth is no longer uniform across the continent. While some Western European countries show signs of slowing, new leaders are emerging on Europe’s periphery.

  • Türkiye has recorded rapid EV growth in 2025, with electric vehicles accounting for 17% of new car sales—almost all of them BEVs.
  • Türkiye has now overtaken Belgium to become the fourth-largest BEV market in Europe by sales volume, driven by tax incentives and new manufacturing investments.

Beyond Europe, countries like Nepal and Ethiopia are demonstrating how bold policy decisions can drive rapid electrification, even without detailed monthly sales data.

  • Ethiopia banned the import of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles in 2024, pushing EV sales share to an estimated 60% that year.
  • Nepal recorded an extraordinary 76% EV share of new car sales in 2024, leveraging its hydropower-rich electricity mix and strong import incentives.

Policy as the Catalyst for Leapfrogging

The rapid rise of EVs in emerging markets has been underpinned by strategic and supportive government policies. Many countries view electric mobility not just as an environmental solution, but as an economic and industrial opportunity.

Key policy drivers include:

  • Tax reductions and purchase incentives for EVs.
  • Local content requirements to stimulate domestic manufacturing.
  • Import tariff exemptions tied to commitments for local production.
  • Urban air quality regulations, such as low-emission zones.

For example:

  • Türkiye introduced tax cuts for new EVs and attracted major foreign investment, including a new BYD manufacturing plant.
  • Indonesia reduced VAT on EVs meeting local content thresholds and lowered import tariffs for manufacturers committing to build factories by 2026. As of May 2025, seven EV manufacturers and battery giant CATL have committed to local facilities.
  • Viet Nam’s VinFast scaled rapidly by serving ride-hailing fleets and building its own charging network, before pivoting successfully to mass consumer sales. The World Bank estimates that Viet Nam’s EV industry could create 6.5 million jobs by 2050.

Air Quality, Energy Security, and Economic Benefits

For many emerging economies, EV adoption is about more than transport—it is about reducing fossil fuel imports, improving air quality, and strengthening energy security.

  • Nepal and Ethiopia, both rich in hydropower but heavily dependent on imported fuels, have embraced EVs to cut energy costs.
  • Viet Nam announced a renewed push for clean transportation in March 2025, including low-emission zones in cities to combat severe air pollution. The country ranks among Asia’s most polluted nations.

These proactive approaches stand in sharp contrast to developments in North America.

  • In the United States, federal EV tax credits were removed in October 2025 under the Trump administration’s “Big Beautiful Bill.”
  • In Canada, the iZEV incentive program was halted in January 2025 after allocated funds were exhausted.

Chinese EV Exports Find New Destinations

The rise of emerging EV markets has been reinforced by China’s position as the world’s dominant EV supplier. Over the past two years, nearly all growth in Chinese EV exports has gone to non-OECD markets.

Since July 2023:

  • The value of Chinese EV exports to non-OECD countries has nearly tripled, rising by approximately $16.2 billion.
  • By comparison, exports to OECD markets increased by just $2.7 billion, or around 5%.

In 2025, four of the top ten destinations for Chinese EV exports are outside the OECD:

  • Brazil
  • Mexico
  • United Arab Emirates
  • Indonesia

These exports are helping emerging markets meet surging demand while accelerating the global shift away from internal combustion engines.


EVs and the Decline of Fossil Fuel Dependence

Electric vehicles are inherently more efficient than ICE vehicles, converting nearly 80% of consumed electricity into motion, compared to ICE vehicles, which waste around 80% of fuel energy as heat.

This efficiency translates into significant fossil fuel savings:

  • In Brazil, where electricity generation is exceptionally clean, BEVs reduce fossil fuel demand by an estimated 90% compared to ICE vehicles.
  • In Indonesia, despite a fossil-heavy power mix, EVs still cut fossil fuel demand by nearly 50%, thanks to superior efficiency.

These reductions demonstrate that EVs deliver benefits in virtually all electricity systems, making them a powerful tool for energy transition worldwide.


Conclusion: A New Center of Gravity for EVs

The global EV transition is no longer a story led solely by advanced economies. Emerging markets are redefining the pace, scale, and direction of transport electrification, introducing new leaders and new models for success.

This shift will have profound implications for global oil demand. Emerging economies are expected to account for the majority of new car sales between now and 2050. Yet the International Energy Agency’s Current Policy Scenario assumes EV sales outside China and Europe remain at 2024 levels—an assumption already proven flawed by 2025 data.

Investment in charging infrastructure, stable policy frameworks, and early-stage incentives will be critical to sustaining this momentum. As emerging markets continue to leapfrog traditional automotive pathways, they are not just adopting electric vehicles—they are reshaping the future of global mobility.


Comment by the Author

The data from 2025 makes one reality unmistakably clear: the future of electric mobility will be shaped in emerging markets, not just in traditional automotive powerhouses. What we are witnessing is not gradual adoption but a strategic leapfrog—where countries are bypassing legacy systems and moving directly into electrified transport ecosystems. If policymakers and industry leaders sustain this momentum with consistent regulation, infrastructure investment, and local manufacturing support, emerging economies will not only drive global EV growth but also redefine energy security, urban air quality, and industrial competitiveness for decades to come.

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